Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is. But hes younger than Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis and a host of other rookies who had successful debuts in 2011, and hes younger than top-ranked prospects entering 2012 like Devin Mesoraco, Brett Jackson and Travis DArnaud. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. He has been a well above-average hitter in the majors at an age when most players are in a short-season league, A-Ball or college. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. The Cubs released Heyward. Jason Heyward Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 33 Bats/Throws: L/L 6' 5" / 240 OF Quick Look 2022 Games Played: CF: 26 RF: 21 RotoWire News: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Heyward. UZRs range component agrees. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10 All. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. 5 seed Indiana State Sycamores (22-11, 13-7 MVC) in the MVC Tournament Saturday at Enterprise Center, beginning at 3:30 PM on CBS Sports Network. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Forget about everything else. These were the players remaining. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Shelby Miller is a good young pitcher, but straight up for Heyward? Chicago Cubs. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Historically, Heyward has pulled just over half his grounders. We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The Leaderboards. Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but its important to remember that hes still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. What follows is going to lean upon some spring-training data. But the power was largely absent. When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Nick Frasso, who had a 1.83 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 54 innings last season, was acquired from the Blue Jays in . Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. Our premise is that their bad (or With the exception of ZiPS, the projection systems (and the fans) see Heyward as more of a .270 hitter with a high OBP and 20-homer power in 2012: ZiPS: .255/.360/.427, 17 HR Its hard not to fall in love with the fantasy potential of Jason Heyward, especially for those of us who cant forget the cant-miss hype surrounding his debut and a rookie season that seemed like the precursor to imminent superstardom. How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? Jason Heyward Positions: Rightfielder, Centerfielder and Leftfielder Bats: Left Throws: Left 6-5 , 240lb (196cm, 108kg) Born: August 9, 1989 (Age: 33-206d) in Ridgewood, NJ us More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 1x All-Star 2016 World Series 5x Gold Glove Wilson Overall Def Player 22 22 22 Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free. Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. Gotta elevate if youre going to be pull-focused. He went second to home on a single. by Retrosheet. Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Heres a powerful triple to center. Jeff Zimmerman found that speedy players, like Heyward, age better than the rest of the baseball population. So how did he end up with some of the best non-stolen-base baserunning numbers in the game? Matt Carpenter was the reverse. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Jason Heyward opens baseball academy in Chicago from TrueBlueLA.com at 2/4/2023 5:04:00 AM. Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. In fact, only teammate Michael Bourn managed more defensive value all around from the outfield. His BABIP this season is .256, while his expected BABIP sits around .315. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. With better luck, health and a little more development, Heyward could be a monster in 2012. Players who rove around the outfield will qualify at the specific outfield position where he played the most innings provided it was a minimum of 75 percent (475 innings) of total innings at the specific position. by Retrosheet. I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. Jason Heyward was a very good baseball player for a very long time. The fact that he gets value from non-traditional means is also not a brain buster. I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. Heywards .113 ISO was no less than 71 points below his career mark entering this year, he slugged just .384 and notched only 58 RBIs, despite making about one-third of his plate appearances as the fifth hitter in the Braves order. Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. Heywards defense and lack of power has the potential to confound, but stripping away the defense, we still see an incredibly valuable player with the potential to maintain or even improve his production. The hard contact, however, is further reinforcement that some offseason swing changes are paying dividends. Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Now, increasingly deprived of opportunities to pull pitches, Heyward in recent years has been going the other way more often, and 2014 saw more than 19% of his plate appearances end with him hitting the ball to the opposite field, a new career high, and a credible explanation for the plunge in distance and home runs. So its difficult to shake the tinge of disappointment thats come to hang around Heyward in the past couple of years, not necessarily because hes done anything wrong he is, after all, just 25 years old and boasts a career .345 wOBA but because in him we see fantasy studliness, and cant help but feel let down each year when he falls short of making good on his immense potential. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. The grounders are just about all pulled. Just to be clear, this isnt a matter of Heyward trading fly balls for line drives; his batted ball distribution, including his GB/FB rate, has stayed remarkably steady over the past three seasons, a period that includes his 2012 campaign in which he bashed a career-high 27 home runs. Jason Heyward. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. While the $330 million figure is likely the one that jumps out, I would direct your attention to the smallest number: $159 million. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Here are their total numbers from age 26 through age 35, a total of ten seasons per player. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Only Garrett Jones (three of 108) had a smaller percentage of GDPs with a minimum of 100 opportunities. 1 seed Bradley Braves (24-8, 16-4 MVC) square off against the No. But, when seen in the light of this years AL MVP debate, as well as the context of these four young outfielders, it is remarkable that Heyward has taken a similar path to Mike Trout, even with an athleticism that might be touch short of that demonstrated by the American League Rookie of the Year. Im not going to worry about it.. His 2012 projections are strong Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Yet, its difficult to project just how hell play during the rest of the season. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors It would be a tragedy if nagging injuries keep him from playing to his full potential. The coaches that were working with me were trying to get me to throw a sinker because sometimes my fastball sinks, Oviedo said. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly Massive crying face emoji. Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . by Retrosheet. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Last year he hit for almost zero power, and his grounder pull rate went from 68% to 43%. FOX Sports - Rowan Kavner 1d. Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. To me, that looks light, and as a huge Heyward fan I am doing my best in putting that out there without bias. How much will he be worth? Heaney added that, in the regular season, he probably wouldnt have thrown that pitch in that situation. Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Well know whats up by the beginning of May. From 26 to 35, the group got better offensively and the only player who completely busted was Carey Patterson. Since the end of World War II, there are 42 players to have produced more than Heywards 61.9 defensive runs above average through age-25, and there are 61 players responsible for more offensive runs above average than Heywards 94.5 through his age-25 season. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Mike Trout represented, perhaps, a belief that we could quantify the other aspects of the game and assign them value. The other groups, with players similar to some aspect of Heywards game, but inferior in other ways, make Heyward a high-quality player, one perhaps worthy of a $200 million contract, but not a Hall of Famer. The most important years are likely to be those at the beginning, in which the team hopes to underpay their player. Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. On Friday, the Cubs won the bidding for Jason Heyward, convincing the outfielder to come to Chicago despite offers for more guaranteed money from the Nationals, the Cardinals, and reportedly. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. ESPN rated the oufielder 11th in the system, Baseball America had him 12th, and The Athletic rated De Paula 18th. However, if we want some sort of hybrid, we can look at the declines of the offensive comps and the defensive comps and combine them. Heres a bomb to right-center. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. Gavin Lux is likely . The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. The team is confident in . Time now for our annual spin through players whose luck in 2022 was worse (or better) than their fortune deserved. All this before you look at his 11 home runs, easily a career low, less than the 14 he put up in two separate seasons when he averaged just 448 plate appearances. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . by Retrosheet. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, One spring of spring-training data. Age is the decisive factor here. Heres why. 1 day ago. Aggravating as it might be, we dont know the answers to those questions. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, It happens. So what is his value in an auction re-draft league? Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Throw caution to the wind, even. Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? Miguel Rojas will replace Lux at shortstop. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Anyhow, heres where Heyward has hit baseballs in spring 2016: Of course Im wary of talking about anything based on so little data. Heywards main drawback, perhaps only drawback, as a player seeking more than $100 million is his lack of power. Indiana State vs Bradley MVC Tournament odds, tips and betting trends. FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Hes forever been a work in progress, so maybe hed change his focus on a whim. From 2010-2015, his 25 WAR was one of the top 20 marks in the game and in his final two seasons before free agency, his 10. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. With an injury (and a team deflation) taking some of the wind out of Stantons sails, and Buster Posey blowing up the National League Most Valuable Player debate, the new toys got a lot more attention than the old new ones. Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). Thats 40-50 points below the NL average and ranks among the likes of Aubrey Huff and Yorvit Torrealba. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. The next group of comps considers only offensive production. Meanwhile, the team is likely stuck with big contracts for the likes of B.J. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a players long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitters career. I am obligated to mention that Mike Trout still has two more seasons to add to his totals. Good defensive outfielders might simply be a smaller subset of that group overall. Even if Heyward were to hit for more power, that might be offset by a drop in singles, or by an increase in strikeouts. But thats never safe against a hitter like Betts, who launched it deep over the left-center-field wall at Surprise Stadium. In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. Whether he finds a home with Cleveland certainly wont depend on whether Quinn can maintain his power output. To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. We're asking for your help to make it. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . Jason Heyward Reality Check | FanGraphs Membership Maybe you heard that some guy named Jason Heyward made the Atlanta Braves' Opening Day roster. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Manager Dave Roberts indicated Taylor would spend 20 to 25 percent of the games there, in addition to his usual work in the outfield. Ideally, we could look for players like Jason Heyward who are good offensively and defensively and see how those players performed. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. The general concern around Heyward and defense is twofold. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Instead, Heywards dinger deficiency has been the byproduct of some ominous declines: Whats changed? Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. This group also aged incredibly well. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. He clearly can the man stands 65. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. They were like, Why are you not throwing it with a [sinker] grip and try to get used to it and learn how to throw it?. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward had glowing praise for manager Dave Roberts, whom he calls a "baseball rat" who loves being around the game. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. If you can sign him without an opt-out, you might be in the rare position of having an 8- or 10-year megadeal where the player is worth his salary every year. With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. Efficiency. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. SUMMARY Theres very little fly-ball action in left field. When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. Service Time : Reported as the pre-2022 value. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Donate to FanGraphs. . Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. When signing long-term contracts, teams tend to pay them out equally over the length of the contract. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. Players are always free to change their minds about anything. Just how healthy is Heyward? Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Heaney then tossed a middle-middle fastball, hoping for an easy strike. All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. Mark Kotsay did not do well overall, but he was actually averaging around three wins per season from 26 to 30 before having a negative value as his career wound down. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. Kiner-Falefa was a defensive whiz with 10 Defensive Runs saved in 2022, helping result in the lowest runs allowed per game in the Bronx since 1981. If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. Others call it a slurve or even a whirlybird. Similarly, if you focus on Heywards triple crown numbers .269 with 27 home runs and 82 RBI youd be missing all that extra value he added in other facets of the game. Cavan Biggio will play half his games in the outfield. Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. Obviously, Heyward is nowhere near as good as Rodriguez was then, but the argument for blowing the budget to sign him is a similar one. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 10 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves